German weekend

[chriscol]

Saturday
1. Bundesliga

Rostock - Hannover: Rostock -0.5 @ 2.05

Rostock on a good run at the moment should continue getting points against relegation with another solid home win (i won with them easily last 2 weeks). Hannover coming of a lucky home draw against Leverkusen. They are usually stronger away than at home, but i expect them to go on a weak streak through 2nd half of season and get into serious relegation problems. today's loss is part of it against a better in form rostock.



Wolfsburg- 1860 München: Wolfsburg -0.5 @ 1.85

Wolfsburg started with 3 losses after winter break, but that only gives us better value for today. they were one of the strongest home teams during 1sr half of season and are playing today against München that is struggeling at the moment and especially away does not look good on defense.Back to old form and easy home win (2 weeks ago line would have been 1.65).

Have leanings on Hamburg +1,+1.5 and leverkusen straight up, but no official plays.

Record will be updated later.

BOL to all

 

[Duckstabber]

Chris,

Today I like Wolfsburg -1/2 @ 1.85, Schalke pk @ 1.90 and possibly HSV +1 1/4 @ 1.90

I'm also looking at Mönchengladbach -1/2 @ 1.85 and Kaiserslautern +1/4 @ 1.75.

Hansa Rostock is one of my favourite teams in Germany (I have friends in Rostock), but I never like backing them as a favourite. Good luck to you though!

 

[chriscol]

Agreed play on Wolfsburg. must be a winner. we should start an "agrred plays" thread like they have it over in the basketball-forum

BOL

 

[acw]

Kaiserslautern +1/4 @ 1.75
Why?

 

[blueedwards]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by chriscol:
Saturday
1. Bundesliga

Rostock - Hannover: Rostock -0.5 @ 2.05

Rostock on a good run at the moment should continue getting points against relegation with another solid home win (i won with them easily last 2 weeks). Hannover coming of a lucky home draw against Leverkusen. They are usually stronger away than at home, but i expect them to go on a weak streak through 2nd half of season and get into serious relegation problems. today's loss is part of it against a better in form rostock.



Wolfsburg- 1860 München: Wolfsburg -0.5 @ 1.85

Wolfsburg started with 3 losses after winter break, but that only gives us better value for today. they were one of the strongest home teams during 1sr half of season and are playing today against München that is struggeling at the moment and especially away does not look good on defense.Back to old form and easy home win (2 weeks ago line would have been 1.65).

Have leanings on Hamburg +1,+1.5 and leverkusen straight up, but no official plays.

Record will be updated later.

BOL to all<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[Duckstabber]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by acw:
_Kaiserslautern +1/4 @ 1.75_
Why?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sorry for the late reply...
Stuttgart have been on a downward trend since the winter break having collected only 4 points and scored 3 goals against mediocre opponents. Lautern played great against Werder last week and deserved at least 1 point. And Stuttgart have a massive game against Chelsea next week.
Both Lautern and Stuttgart have played low scoring games lately so I took the +1/4 @ 1.75 instead of pk @ 2.10ish.

Anyway, I often find it hard to compare the value in a given bet if the handicap isn't the same... In this game, which option would you have chosen? (Assuming you liked Lautern

)

 

[acw]

(Assuming you liked Lautern )
I will be honest enough to say that I did not like them.

Anyway, I often find it hard to compare the value in a given bet if the handicap isn't the same... In this game, which option would you have chosen?
Quite often if I cannot get enough on on one of them, I will bet both. It obviously all depends on how much chance the draw has and you think Kaiserslautern has to win.

Lets say Kaiserlautern 40%
The draw 28%
Stuttgart 32%

On the no handicap you have (.4*1.1)-.32=+12%
On the +0/.5 you have (.4*.75+.5*.28*.75)-.32=+8.5%

The no handicap will have been better, but if it were:
Kaiserslautern 28%
The draw 40%
Stuttgart 32%

Then on the no handicap you have (.28*1.1)-.32=-1.2%
And on the +0/.5 you have (.28*.75+.5*.4*.75)-.32=+4%